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The biggest stars of the tennis world have descended upon New York, which will witness Coco Gauff try and defend her US Open title over the next fortnight. A long list of challengers awaits her.
While the women’s game has sprung one surprise winner after another in recent years, many featuring in this year’s draw have fared better on the North American hardcourts than the others historically.
And here, we will take a closer look at precisely that set of names. So without further ado, here are the top eight contenders for the season’s final Slam based on their performances in the US Open series over the last three years.
Note: The following formula was used to calculate the power rankings for the women's singles contenders at this year's US Open: (1x points earned in the 2024 US Open series + 0.5x points earned in the 2023 US Open series + 0.25x points earned in the 2022 US Open series).
8. Karolina Muchova
A big chunk of Karolina Muchova's points for this year’s US Open power rankings come from her whirlwind 2023 season.
Not only did the Czech player make the semifinals in New York, she also contested the final in Cincinnati. That said, it took Coco Gauff, who lifted both titles in question, to stop her.
While Muchova was away from the sport for the first half of 2024 due to an injury, she has begun to show signs of revival. Good memories from last year may just help her pull off another big run.
7. Amanda Anisimova
When in full flow, there are few sights better in tennis than watching Amanda Anisimova's crushing groundstrokes.
The explosive American has battled injuries and overcome some tough personal losses in recent years and her tennis is finally beginning to look as good as it did when she was on the verge of breaking into the top-20 back in 2019.
In the last few weeks, she has beaten big names like Sloane Stephens, Daria Kasatkina, Anna Kalinskaya and Emma Navarro en-route the quarterfinal in Washington and the final in Toronto — her first at a WTA 1000 event. With her home Slam around the corner, she is peaking at just the right time.
6. Paula Badosa
Much like her predecessor on the US Open power rankings, Paula Badosa’s claim to the spot also comes from her solid 2024 season.
The Spaniard has come into her own of late, winning her first title in over two years at the Washington Open before posting wins over the likes of Anna Kalinskaya, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, and Peyton Stearns en-route to the Cincinnati semifinal.
Badosa’s big serve is an asset on the harcourts. She is among the leaders when it comes to aces (at No. 8 with 201) and has been winning an impressive 69% of her points behind the first delivery. Those numbers should set the alarm bells ringing for her opponents.
5. Liudmila Samsonova
Liudmila Samsonova has been one of the most consistent performers in the US Open series over the last few years.
The Russian’s powerful, flat groundstrokes work like magic on the North American hardcourts and titles at the Tennis in the Land and Washington (both in 2022) are testament to that.
On the bigger stage, she made the Canadian Open final last year and has followed it up with back-to-back quarterfinal showings in Toronto and Cincinnati this year. A brilliant 210 aces (at No. 7 in the leaderboard) and 71.1% first serve winning percentage for 2024 are just the cherry on top.
4. Iga Swiatek
Iga Swiatek has five Grand Slam titles to her name. Four of them have come in Paris, which makes her 2022 US Open triumph extra special.
While the Pole is decidedly more comfortable on the slower clay, her run to the title in New York a couple of years ago showed her ability to adapt and hit big when the need arises.
While she has no other titles from the US Open series to show for, semifinal runs at the Canadian Open in the last two years and Cincinnati last year were enough to help her secure the fourth spot.
The challenge will be tough with a host of big ball-strikers standing in her way, but the Pole can never be written off completely.
3. Defending US Open champ Coco Gauff
Speaking of recent winners, Coco Gauff will also be back in New York hoping to defend the crown she lifted after a long and testing fortnight last year.
The American was not expected to win. In the eyes of most, she wasn’t the best hardcourt player by any measure. But the youngster built on her strengths, lifted the WTA 500 title in Washington, then the WTA 1000 trophy in Cincinnati, and soon found herself staring down Aryna Sabalenka in the US Open final.
The American came back after losing the opening set to claim her maiden Slam. And while her form this year is nowhere near what it was 12 months ago, she has the game needed to turn things around.
2. Jessica Pegula
Jessica Pegula hits flat and fast. She likes to stay low on the legs and rarely falls too far behind the baseline, not even in the face of immense power coming at her from the other end.
All these qualities have seen her be rewarded with back-to-back WTA 1000 titles at the Canadian Open (2023 and 2024). She has been on fire especially this year, making the Cincinnati final shortly after her triumph in Toronto.
The American has also played consistently well at the US Open in the past, making the quarterfinal in 2022. She often just lacks the standout weapon that players with the big serve and raw power have anchoring their game.
Wins over big-hitters like Anisimova and Badosa will have given her confidence coming into the US Open and there could not be a better stage for Pegula to clinch that big Slam trophy missing from her cabinet.
1. Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna Sabalenka came close last year, very close in fact. It was just her inability to sense Coco Gauff’s comeback bid gaining momentum in that final that got to her.
The Belarussian, however, was quick to bounce back and captured a second Slam title at the Australian Open this year. She obviously enjoys playing in this part of the world and has warmed up nicely, with semifinal and quarterfinal runs at Washington and Canada and that big title in Cincinnati.
And not to forget the fact that she has reached the semifinals or better at the US Open in the last three years.
Her serving woes are a thing of the past as she goes into the tournament as No. 3 ace leader (235 aces) and a 70.9% first serve winning percentage. There are still days when things don’t work for Sabalenka, but she is not as quick to lose her patience as she once was. The chinks in the armour have come down sizeably and it will take a valiant effort to stop the Belarusian’s charge.
