Miami Open 2023: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Bhargav
Paul (left) takes on Fokina in Miami on Sunday.
Paul (left) takes on Fokina in Miami on Sunday.

Match details

Fixture: (16) Tommy Paul vs (20) Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Tournament: Miami Open 2023

Date: Sunday, March 26

Round: Third round (Round of 32)

Venue: Miami Gardens, Florida, United States

Category: ATP Masters 1000

Surface: Outdoor hardcourt

Prize money: $8,800,000

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel/TC Plus | UK - Amazon Prime Video


Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina preview

Paul is into the Miami third round.
Paul is into the Miami third round.

Sixteenth seed Tommy Paul will lock horns with 20th seed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in one of the matches of the third round at the Miami Open.

The 19th-ranked Paul is off to a 15-5 start to the year after opening his campaign with a hard-fought win over Marc-Andrea Huesler. In a career-best season, the 25-year-old reached his maiden Grand Slam semifinal at the Australian Open (lost to eventual winner Novak Djokovic).

After making the quarterfinals at Delray Beach, Paul reached his first ATP 500 final in Acapulco but went down to Alex de Minaur in three sets. He returned to winning ways at Indian Wells last week, reaching the fourth round before losing to Felix Auger-Aliassime in a third-set tiebreak.

Meanwhile, World No. 25 Fokina opened his Miami campaign against Brandon Nakashima to improve to 11-7 on the season. The 23-year-old Spaniard is coming off a quarterfinal run at Indian Wells - lost to Daniil Medvedev - his third quarterfinal of 2023. Earlier, Fokina also made the last eight in Doha and Adelaide 2.

The Spaniard is now 1-1 at Miami after losing in the first round on his tournament debut last year.


Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina head-to-head

Paul took the pair's lone meeting in the second round of the Australian Open this year en route to the last four. In a hard-fought battle, the American had to recover from two sets to one down to make his deepest run at a Major.


Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina odds

PlayerMoneylineHandicap BetsTotal games (over/under)
Tommy Paul-165-1.5 (+135)Over 22.5 (-120)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina+130+61.5 (-190)Under 22.5 (-120)

(Odds as per BEtMGM)


Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina prediction

Fokina is into the Miami third round.
Fokina is into the Miami third round.

Both players have pretty similar game styles and are quintessential baseliners. It's a tough matchup to call, as Paul and Fokina went the distance in their lone matchup this year.

The two players tend to play their best tennis on hardcourts, where their strong serve, powerful hitting off both flanks and good movement pay rich dividends. However, Fokina gets the slight edge, as he can hit winners from seemingly impossible angles and is an elite mover.

Paul, though, is playing the best tennis of his career and is the steadier, if not the more spectacular, of the two players. Nevertheless, expect another rousing battle and Paul to prevail again as he looks to reach the Miami fourth round for the first time.

Pick: Paul in three sets