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A spot in the third round is up for grabs on Day 3 of the Canadian Open 2024. Home favorite Felix Auger-Aliassime bit the dust in the first round on Wednesday as he went down to Flavio Cobolli in straight sets.
Denis Shapovalov failed to cross the first hurdle as well as he was sent packing by Brandon Nakashima. Top-ranked Americans Taylor Fritz, Tommy Paul, Ben Shelton, and Sebastian Korda all advanced to the second round.
Qualifiers Borna Coric and Thanasi Kokkinakis also progressed to the second round, along with Ugo Humbert, Nuno Borges, and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. All second-round matches will be contested on Thursday, and here are the predictions for a few singles matches set for Day 3 of the Canadian Open:
#1 - Hubert Hurkacz vs Thanasi Kokkinakis
Hurkacz sustained an injury during his Wimbledon campaign, which also ruled him out of the Paris Olympics. While he was expected to be out for a while, he's already back in action. He was the runner-up at the Canadian Open a couple of years ago and has a 15-8 record on hardcourts this year.
Kokkinakis came through the qualifying rounds of the Canadian Open and faced Gael Monfils in the first round. He beat the Frenchman 6-3, 6-3 to reach the second round here for the second year in a row.
Hurkacz leads Kokkinakis 3-0 in the head-to-head and beat him in straight sets en route to the Shanghai Masters title last year. If the Pole is completely healed after his injury, then he should be able to secure another win in this match-up, or else the Australian is likely to get the better of him this time.
Predicted winner: Thanasi Kokkinakis
#2 - Karen Khachanov vs Matteo Arnaldi
Khachanov commenced his Canadian Open campaign with a 6-4, 6-4 win over Gabriel Diallo, while Arnaldi rallied from a set down to beat Mackenzie McDonald 4-6, 6-4, 6-4. The Russian made the semifinals here two years in a row in 2018 and 2019 but has struggled since then.
Khachanov made the third round in 2021 and lost in the second round the next year. He missed last year's edition due to an injury. Arnaldi is in the midst of a breakout season, and his best result at a Masters tournament this year has been reaching the fourth round of the Miami Open.
Khachanov has been quite consistent at the Masters level this year as well and has reached at least the fourth round of the last four events at this level. Arnaldi could give him a tough time but the Russian should be able to make it through in the end.
Predicted winner: Karen Khachanov
#3 - Lorenzo Sonego vs Alejandro Tabilo
Sonego dug deep to outlast Tallon Griekspoor 7-6 (7), 5-7, 6-4 in his opener. Tabilo ousted Frances Tiafoe in the first round with a 6-4, 6-2 win, his first over the American as well.
Sonego won his previous and only encounter against Tabilo at the Winston-Salem Open a couple of years ago in straight sets. However, the Italian has a disappointing 5-9 record on hardcourts this season and hasn't won consecutive matches on the surface.
Tabilo has a 9-3 record on hardcourts, though half of those wins came during his title-winning run in Auckland at the start of the season. He failed to register back-to-back victories on the surface at the Masters events at Indian Wells and Miami. Nevertheless, the Chilean's marginally better record makes him the favorite in this match-up.
Predicted winner: Alejandro Tabilo
#4 - Andrey Rublev vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Rublev started the season on a high, winning the title in Hong Kong and reaching the quarterfinals of the Australian Open. However, he went off the rails after being defaulted in the semifinals in Dubai. After his third-round exit from the Indian Wells Masters, he lost in the first round of his next three events.
Rublev bounced back by winning the Madrid Open but didn't end the clay swing on a high. Following a third-round finish at the French Open, he bowed out in the first round of his next three tournaments once again. He made the last eight of the Citi Open last week and received a first-round bye at the Canadian Open.
Etcheverry kicked off his campaign in Montreal with a 7-6 (5), 6-7 (5), 6-2 win over Nicolas Jarry. It marked only his third win on hardcourts this year. Rublev is the better player on the surface compared to the Argentine.
However, given his inconsistency in recent months, it's not certain that he'll emerge on the victorious side. The Russian's record does make him the favorite but it wouldn't be surprising to see him bow out early either.
Predicted winner: Andrey Rublev
