Can Coco Gauff beat Iga Swiatek to become World No. 1 in 2024? Breaking down the rankings scenario midway through season

Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff cemented their place as the World No. 1 and World No. 2 respectively in the post-French Open WTA rankings. Swiatek defended her title in Paris to stay at the top of the women's ranking, while a semi-final run helped Gauff eclipse Aryna Sabalenka in the second spot.

Currently, Iga Swiatek has 11695 points to her name, 3707 points more than Coco Gauff with 7988 points. The Polish star worked wonders on the clay court with title wins at the Madrid Open, the Italian Open, and Roland Garros to take a sizeable lead into the grass season.

Coco Gauff will need everything to go her way if she is to overtake Swiatek as the World No. 1 before the end of the season. The Wimbledon championships will play a big part in deciding whether Swiatek will continue her dominance as the world's best-ranked women's player.

Wimbledon will be the key in deciding the World No. 1 spot

Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek suffered disappointing losses at the Wimbledon in 2023. The American was ousted in the first round against Sofia Kenin while Iga Swiatek lost in the quarterfinal against Elina Svitolina, Now, with both players in form before the Wimbledon, Gauff and Swiatek will be keen to change their fortunes at SW19.

Coco Gauff has nothing to lose at Wimbledon this year as the American will only defend 10 points. A title win in London will help the 20-year-old gain 1990 points and could bring her closer to Swiatek's points total in the rankings.

Similarly, a quarter-final run last year means that Swiatek will defend only 430 points at Wimbledon. The Polish star will be the favorite to improve on her performances in London, but with grass not being her favored surface, Gauff will have a chance to close the gap on her Polish rival.

With 2024 being an Olympic year, Gauff and Swiatek will both miss out on a few WTA tournaments and drop a few points. A player's WTA rankings are unaffected by winning an Olympic competition, and competitors receive no points for participating.

After the Olympics, Swiatek and Gauff's next high-profile involvement will be the Cincinnati WTA 1000 tournament. Gauff will start as the defending champion with 900 points, while Swiatek's semi-final run last year earned her 350 points. Similarly at the China Open, Swiatek will start as the defending champion with 1000 points, while Coco Gauff's semi-final run in 2023 has earned her 390 points.

The US Open will prove to be another decisive tournament before the year-end rankings as Gauff will defend a Grand Slam title for the first time in her career. The American will have to defend 2000 points and a failure to win the title at Flushing Meadows will prove decisive in her aim to be the World No. 1.

Swiatek was knocked out in the fourth round of the US Open in 2023 and will only have 240 points to defend. The Pole will be eager to add more points to her bank with a deep run in the competition.

At the year-end WTA finals last year, Iga Swiatek won the title and 1500 points. Gauff on the other hand could only reach the semi-final and win 625 points. However, the American's year-end No. 1 dream could be over before the start of the WTA Finals 2024.

Gauff looks unlikely to overtake Swiatek as the World No. 1 this year. The American would have to win both, the Wimbledon and the US Open, and hope that Swiatek struggles in both, to stake a claim for the World No. 1 spot. Also with the Olympics set to disrupt the WTA calendar, Swiatek could be set to end the year as the World No. 1 again.