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THE TWO WORST TEAMS IN THE NFL
By Jeff Cadillac
Eight weeks of the NFL have been completed so far in the 2022 season. One thing that is perfectly clear is that two teams stand out as the worst two teams in the NFL. Now there may be some debate as to who those teams are but just going by on their wins and losses it’s safe to say the Houston Texans at 1-5-1 & the Detroit Lions at 2-6 are the worst teams in the NFL. By looking at these two teams a bit closer, we will look to see whether or not to play them or fade them for bettors looking for an edge.
The Houston Texans were not on anyone’s Superbowl predictions list before the season and they are living up to that analysis quite well. After GM/HC Bill O’Brien basically shredded the team of any talent a couple of years ago, the team hasn’t been a contender for anything except high draft picks. Their record, 1-5-1 SU is a product of having inexperienced players & a lack of talent up and down the roster. But their ATS record of 4-3 ATS shows that they are a feisty bunch that brings value to the bettor looking for an edge.
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First let’s look at some stats. Forget about HOU being a FAV for any of their games. They weren’t projected to be a FAV before the season and so far it is playing out that way. I would be very surprised if there is a game in 2022 that HOU is listed as the FAV. As a HOME DOG, HOU is 1-2 ATS. In the HOME OPENER vs INDY, HOU was up 20-3 and let a big lead slip away. In that game, they were a HOME DOG +8 and I certainly liked their chances vs an INDY team that had their own question marks. The game ended up being tie and the +8 looked like a very good bet.
In week 4 vs LAC, HOU was +5 and considering that at the time HOU was 3-0 ATS, I also thought it was a good bet because with LAC you don’t really know what you’re getting week to week. HOU ended up losing 34-24 and their ATS record fell to 3-1. In wk 8, HOU was HOME DOG +2 vs TENN. I felt a fade here was appropriate, especially since TENN was on a roll and HOU was starting to look like the team they really are, bad. Well, HOU couldn’t stop TENN RB Derrick Henry and TENN had a commanding 17-3 lead when HOU scored a dummy td very late in the game to make the score respectable, TENN 17-10. It is still a loss and an ATS loss.
For HOU, the AWAY games have been a much better story. HOU is 3-1 ATS AWAY. In week 2 they were an AWAY DOG+10 @DEN. In this game I felt that DEN hadn’t shown anything in their wk 1 game @SEA but were looking for a win. HOU coming off the tie, would still be competitive. I also felt that DEN would win but, not by more than 6 or 7 pts. I liked the points for HOU and sure enough HOU played tough but lost 16-9. HOU got the cover. In wk 3 @CHI, HOU was +3 ½ . The problem points are always the 3 ½ & 7 ½ . Experienced gamblers will always live and die with that ½ pt. Well, with score 20-20, HOU QB Davis Mills threw an INT to CHI LB Raquon Smith and if he had just stayed on his feet, he would have scored a TD and the final would have been either CHI 26-20 or 27-20. These days, an extra pt is never a gimmee. Well, he fell down and CHI kicked a fg to make the score 23-20. I liked CHI-3 ½ and that little mishap cost me a winning pick and probably some others a lot of money. If I had a nickel for every game over the years that I won or lost by a ½ point, I would be very rich. It happens more than you think and the books all know it. In week 5 @JAGS, HOU was +7. This was an AFC SOUTH game and the JAGS were coming off a game @PHILLY that they should have won. So the mentality here is JAGS on a bounceback and HOU was in the way. Unfortunately, JAGS are also lame and at times lamer than HOU. HOU all of a sudden did everything right and JAGS did everything wrong, HOU ended up winning 13-6, go figure. The HOU DEF held the JAGS to 2fgs and intercepted JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence 2x.
In Week 7 @LV, HOU was +7 and since LV has no business being a HEAVY FAV, I liked HOU’s chances here because believe it or not, they match up well. I honestly didn’t think HOU would win but, they would make it close. LV has their own problems and that is for another article, Ha Ha.
Anyway, HOU was leading 20-17 going into the 4th qtr and I felt good about it. But, the bottom fell out for HOU as it happens very often with bad teams. With the score LV 31-20, HOU QB Davis Mills threw an ill advised pass that was returned for 73yds td by LV S Duron Harmon that made the score LV 38-20. With the score 31-20, LV was playing loose DEF knowing they had the game at hand. I was looking for HOU to get the back door cover here. They would get the TD and the final score would be 31-26, 31-27 or 31-28 depending or not if HOU went for the 2pt conversion. That is all fine and dandy because HOU was +7. Well, they didn’t get there and the final score was LV 38-20. The ball came right to Harmon and he ran it back.
Moving forward with HOU, you have to look at certain stats. 1st off is that the HOU DEF can’t stop anyone good. HOU #30 TOT DEF w/ #32 RUSH DEF & #17 PASS DEF. If HOU is playing a high-powered offense, you should bet accordingly, hence vs PHILLY. The PASS DEF is decent for HOU but on the ground they can’t stop anyone. The HOU OFF is just as bad, HOU #31 TOT OFF w/ #26 RUSH OFF & #25 PASS OFF. Although rookie RB Dameon Pierce shows a lot of talent and could help take HOU to some winning days down the road. HOU is #5 in the turnover differential at +0.4. This means that they don’t turn the ball over much, which is a very promising sign. But here’s a hint, going forward, if you know that a team that is facing HOU is in the top 5 OFF or top 5 DEF, the safe bet is fading HOU. If that team is coached well, they wilOf courseOU. You need to do some research. Ofcourse, you can just read my website @ www.jeffcadillac.com and I will share that research with you for free.
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The next team that I am looking at is the Detroit Lions. They are 1-6 SU & 3-4 ATS. At HOME, Detroit 1-3 SU & 2-2 ATS. In those games, DET has been a HOME FAV 2x. In week 2 vs WASH, DET was -2. The reasoning here was that WASH was coming off a comeback win vs the JAGS and DET was coming off a comeback loss to PHILLY in wk 1. DET came through here as they beat WASH 36-27, to not only win outright but to cover as well.
I actually liked DET here because they didn’t give up vs PHILLY. In wk 4, DET was-6 ½ @HOME vs SEA. I liked SEA in this game because SEA already had shown that their OFF can score and they were due. DET was probably the BIG FAV because in wk 3 they were leading BIG, 24-14 at MINN but eventually lost 28-24. Too many points to give SEA. Well, in a shootout that DET had to play catchup, SEA won 48-45. The game was never in doubt for SEA as they built up a huge lead and scored points when needed to stop DET from catching up.
As a HOME DOG, DET is 1-1 ATS but, barely. In wk 1 @HOME vs PHILLY, DET was +4. I liked PHILLY here because I felt that PHILLY needed to get on a roll and DET really hadn’t changed much from last season. PHILLY was up 31-14 & 38-21 in the 3rd qtr and I felt comfortable that PHILLY would hold to win and cover. Well, PHILLY got lax and DET scored two dummy TDs in the 4th qtr and the final was PHILLY 38-35, no cover. If you picked DET, you love it because of the back door cover. If you picked PHILLY, like me, you hate it because this is a game that PHILLY should not have eased up and let DET back in the game.
This happens to some of the best teams and it is just part of the game. In week 8, vs MIA, DET actually was leading 21-7 and 27-17 in the 4th qtr only to give up 2tds to MIA and lose 31-27. MIA was -3 and I liked MIA in this game. MIA was a little lax in this game and gave up points they shouldn’t have. If you picked DET, you’re thinking, great offense but the Defense just needs to hold on a for a little bit. Well, bad teams find a way to lose and DET certainly did.
For DET away from HOME, the season started out looking promising but have quickly turned bad. In wk 3 @MINN, they were DOGS+6 for an NFC NORTH game. DET was up 24-14 in this game but couldn’t hold on and lost 28-24. I liked MINN in this game because MINN was coming off a big loss @PHILLY on MNF and this was a bounceback situation and MINN would be looking to get back on track. MINN started out sluggish and dug themselves a hole that they barely got out of, it happens. Then @NE in wk 5 DET was crushed 29-0. This was right before DET’s bye and DET is terrible right before their bye, going 5-10 ATS since 2007.
Also, historically, DET is not good at playing outside vs teams outside their division. I thought they would play better coming off that near miss vs SEA but, I was wrong. Then in wk 7 @DAL, DET was a DOG+7. I liked DAL BIG, because DAL was coming off their loss @PHILLY and were looking to bounceback. Well, the score ended up being DAL 24-6 but for all the wrong reasons. DET turned the ball over four straight times in the 4th qtr with the score DAL 10-6. DAL in turn scored 2tds off the turnovers and the final was 24-6. DET turned the ball over 5x in this game and it was a game that DET could have won.
Let’s look at some statistics. DET is #30 in the turnover margin with -0.7 which is not good. They turn the ball over too much. That comes from undisciplined players and bad coaching. When DET is playing a team that has a good turnover differential, expect the worst. The DET OFF seems to score a lot of points but, a lot of ties to the fact that they are routinely playing catchup and teams tend to ease up on DEF when they know the game is won. DET #4 TOT OFF w/ #10 RUSH OFF & #7 PASS OFF. DET’s QB Jared Goff has some nice numbers but a lot of his stats are produced in “garbage time”. This means that DET had no chance of winning and the opposing DEFs ease up.
DET’s DEF is major problem because they can’t stop anyone. The lowest amount of points that DET has given up is 24 and that was @DAL. DET #32 TOT DEF w/ #30 RUSH DEF & #27 PASS DEF. If DET is playing a team with a high powered Offense, fade them. DET is also #32 pts per allowed, giving up an average of 32pts a game. That is staggering. Looking forward at the DET schedule, always look to see where DET matches up or doesn’t match up and pick accordingly. I don’t see DET winning too many games this season unless they get really lucky. They may cover a game or two where the spread is large enough for that back door cover.
So, we’ve looked at two of the worst teams in the NFL for the 2022 season so far. My advice to you is to make sure you look for healthy comparisons before making your weekly picks and don’t look for any false hidden value on these teams that may cost you money in the end.
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In the meantime, you can follow me @ www.jeffcadillac.com, Spotskeeda & Twitter @Jeffcadillac1. Enjoy the games everyone and I will talk to you next week.
