Jake Ferguson or Dalton Kincaid: Who should I start in Week 17 Fantasy Football?

Week 17 of the 2023 fantasy football season marks the championship round of the playoffs in many leagues. Even in formats where the final game is next week, the majority of managers still playing this week are almost definitely in a playoff matchup. This means that they will need to make sure to maximize all of their positions or their season can legitimately be over.

Tight ends can be tricky in fantasy football due to the lack of depth in the position, but Jake Ferguson and Dalton Kincaid have been two of the breakout stars this year. Some managers with both as roster options for Week 17 may be debating which one to plug into their lineups. The following breakdown can help.

Is Jake Ferguson a good fantasy pick in Week 17?

The Dallas Cowboys moved on from Dalton Schultz during the offseason, opening the door for Jake Ferguson to serve an elevated role. He has responded in a big way by emerging as a key part of their offense as well as one of the biggest breakout stars of the 2023 fantasy football season. He currently ranks as the overall TE11 this year.

Ferguson profiles as a back-end TE1 on most fantasy rosters and has been more consistently productive than most other tight ends. He has ranked among the top 12 weekly players in his position nine times this season, including in three of his past four games. He is averaging a solid four receptions on six targets per game and has totaled five touchdowns so far.

Up next for Ferguson is a favorable Week 17 matchup against the Detroit Lions, who are much more stout against the rush than the pass, including allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. The Cowboys have also been dominant this season when playing at home, so Ferguson could see an additional boost in fantasy football production.

Is Dalton Kincaid a good fantasy pick in Week 17?

The Buffalo Bills selected Dalton Kincaid in the 2023 NFL Draft to add another weapon to their already-elite offense. He started the season slow in fantasy football, finishing as TE16 or worse in each of his first five games, but then exploded to become one of the most dominant tight ends in the middle of the year when Dawson Knox went down with an injury.

Kincaid proceeded to record six consecutive finishes among the top 12 tight ends with at least five receptions in every game during that stretch. His production has regressed in recent weeks, finishing outside of the top 20 tight ends in each of his past three games since Knox returned from his injury. He has totaled just six receptions during the past three weeks.

Week 17 will be Kincaid's next opportunity to bounce back, but it won't be easy against the New England Patriots. They have been one of the most solid passing defenses this season and particularly excel in defending tight ends. They are allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to the position.

Jake Ferguson vs. Dalton Kincaid: Who should I start in Week 17 fantasy football?

According to the Start/Sit Optimizer, Jake Ferguson makes for a better tight end option than Dalton Kincaid in Week 17 fantasy football lineups. This valuable tool weighs every possible variable for any player in a given week to generate fantasy projections and lineup suggestions. In this particular scenario, it favors Ferguson for a higher output.

Kincaid's recent skid compared to Ferguson's hot streak, as well as the Patriots presenting a much more challenging matchup than the Lions, are among the biggest factors in their projected differences. The Optimizer expects Ferguson to receive more volume and turn that into more yardage, as well as projecting him to be more likely to score a touchdown. This makes him the more favorable lineup option this week.