UFC Predictions: 4 marquee lightweight bouts on the horizon

The UFC lightweight division is widely regarded as the deepest and most competitive bracket across the entirety of combat sports.

Since the retirement of former 155-pound champion Khabib Nurmagomedov in 2020, the divisional throne has been claimed by Charles Oliveira. The Brazilian will fight for the title this weekend when he squares off against Nurmagomedov's teammate and protégé Islam Makhachev.

Apart from the upcoming championship fight, a number of pivotal lightweight bouts will be underway before 2022 closes out. The pecking order at 155 pounds is set to undergo a re-shuffle over the next few months and it remains to be seen how the chips will fall going into 2023.

On that note, here are our predictions for the marquee lightweight matchups on the horizon.

---

#4. Arman Tsarukyan vs. Damir Ismagulov – UFC Vegas 66

A new wave of lightweights is on the rise. The likes of Jalin Turner, Guram Kutateladze, Mateusz Gamrot, Arman Tsarukyan and Damir Ismagulov may not get the same attention as the more popular 155-pounders, but true MMA aficianados are well aware that their skills warrant a higher ranking.

Tsarukyan is the youngest of the aforementioned lightweights. The 26-year-old is incredibly well-rounded for his age, which has seemingly discouraged his peers from signing on the dotted line.

He is now committed to beating anyone the UFC offers him en route to a championship, resulting in his upcoming matchup against Ismagulov, another highly touted prospect. They are slated to square off in the final UFC event of 2022.

Damir Ismagulov is riding an astonishing 19-fight win streak. Since signing with the UFC in 2018, the Russian has picked up five wins on the trot, including victories over fellow rising contenders Joel Alvarez and Guram Kutateladze, to climb to the No.11 spot in the rankings.

With 12 knockouts in his professional career thus far, Ismagulov is a potent threat in the striking department. He also boasts stellar takedown defense, a trait most Russian fighters seem to possess. At 31, he is also in his physical prime.

However, Arman Tsarukyan is a true generational talent. His only two defeats in the UFC so far have been narrow decision losses to Islam Makhachev and Mateusz Gamrot. The fight against Makhachev was notably on short notice and his loss to Gamrot is questionable to say the least.

Against a striking-heavy opponent like Ismagulov, Tsarukyan's multi-dimensional skillset could prove to be the X-factor. The Armenian will likely need a few takedowns if he is to emerge victorious and defend his No.10 spot in the lightweight rankings.

This being a three-round fight also favors Tsarukyan, who has the ability to win rounds with his grappling prowess and top pressure. Considering Ismagulov has never been finished in his professional career, a decision win for Tsarukyan seems to be the likeliest outcome.

Our Pick: Arman Tsarukyan via unanimous decision

---

#3. Dustin Poirier vs. Michael Chandler – UFC 281

Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler came up short in their bids to claim undisputed UFC gold in 2021. Poirier, a former interim UFC champion, and Chandler, a former Bellator champion, were both finished by Charles Oliveira last year.

Since their losses to Oliveira, both Americans have been vying to return to title contention. Poirier has remained on the sidelines since his championship defeat, while Chandler was defeated by Justin Gaethje before bouncing back with a sensational knockout victory over Tony Ferguson.

With both top-ranked lightweights looking to stake their claim for another shot at gold and the obvious animosity between them, the UFC booked this no-brainer for UFC 281 at Madison Square Garden in New York City.

This explosive matchup has Fight of the Night written all over it. Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler are among the most entertaining and fan-friendly fighters to watch in the lightweight division, making this pairing quite hard to predict.

The outcome of this bout essentially comes down to Chandler's approach. If he chooses to stand-and-bang with 'The Diamond', it's unlikely he'll come away with the win. Poirier has a solid striking base as seen in his wins over Justin Gaethje, Max Holloway, Dan Hooker and Conor McGregor.

If Chandler can integrate his wrestling into this fight, it will certainly make things more interesting. Even the threat of a takedown could prompt Poirier to drop his hands on occasion, allowing Chandler to potentially capitalize with his undeniable knockout power.

Additionally, this will be the first time Poirier will compete in a three-round fight in over five years. The Lousiana native can afford to be more aggressive early on against Chandler, whose cardio tends to fade as the fight goes on.

All things considered, either a decision win or a late finish for 'The Diamond' appears to be the most probable result.

Our Pick: Dustin Poirier via third-round TKO

---

#2. Beneil Dariush vs. Mateusz Gamrot – UFC 280

At UFC 280, where the lightweight championship is set to be contested in the pay-per-view headliner, two rising 155-pounders are set to lock horns on the main card. Beneil Dariush and Mateusz Gamrot, both ranked inside the top 10, will have the opportunity to claim a statement-making win in Abu Dhabi this weekend.

Dariush is riding a seven-fight win streak in the lightweight division. The Iranian-born American hasn't tasted defeat in over four years and has been on the cusp of a championship opportunity for quite some time now.

He was scheduled to fight fellow top contender Islam Makhachev earlier this year. Unfortunately, he suffered an injury just a week before the bout and was replaced by Bobby Green. Makhachev went on to dominate Green to earn his title shot and Dariush was ultimately left with Mateusz Gamrot, who is three spots behind him in the rankings.

Both fighters are quite evenly matched as they possess world-class grappling with solid striking skills. Beneil Dariush is a lethal Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist with eight submissions on his record. Mateusz Gamrot, a former two-division KSW champion, is a wrestling phenom, making this pairing quite intriguing.

The only apparent discrepency between the duo is their experience and damage sustained thus far. Prior to his win streak, Dariush was finished by the likes of Michael Chiesa, Edson Barboza and Alexander Hernandez. On the flipside, Gamrot has never been stopped in his professional career.

This matchup will likely be a war of attrition. While a knockout win for either fighter is certainly plausible, Gamrot's durability could see the Polish lightweight edge out a narrow decision victory.

Our Pick: Mateusz Gamrot via split-decision

---

#1. Charles Oliveira vs. Islam Makhachev – UFC 280 main event

The vacant UFC lightweight championship will be contested in the main event of UFC 280 in Abu Dhabi as former champion Charles Oliveira will look to re-claim the strap when he takes on the surging Islam Makhachev.

The majority of the MMA community considers Oliveira the unofficial champion after he was unceremoniously stripped following his weight-miss debacle preceding UFC 274. Meanwhile, Makhachev is being touted as Hall-of-Famer Khabib Nurmagomedov's heir to the lightweight throne.

Considering the stylistic matchup, the competitive rivalry and the prize on offer, this is arguably the most anticipated 155-pound championship bout since the record-breaking Khabib vs. McGregor grudge match back in 2018.

Charles Oliveira, the record-holder for most finishes and submissions in UFC history, has looked a fighter reborn since moving up to the lightweight division. The Brazilian is riding a scorching 11-fight win streak, comprising 10 finishes.

Since winning the title last year, Oliveira has submitted former interim champions Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje to cement himself as the best lightweight in the world. While he was stealing the headlines atop the division, Islam Makhachev has emerged as the Brazilian's toughest test to date.

Makhachev's wrestling will be his biggest asset going into this fight. The Dagestani has a wide arsenal of trips, sweeps, throws and takedowns to take this fight to the mat. Considering Oliveira's undeniably dangerous guillotines and other submissions off his back, Makhachev will have to be extremely careful while closing the distance.

As we've seen previously on many occasions, high-level wrestling tends to neutralize the threat posed by Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialists. It's hard to imagine Makhachev getting choked out in this matchup, so if the fight hits the ground, expect him to dominate with top pressure and ground-and-pound.

However, if Oliveira is able to prevent his opponent from securing takedowns and the fight stays on the feet, Makhachev is in serious trouble. While the Russian's stand-up game is polished and doesn't have many holes, 'do Bronx' has shown that he has real fight-ending power in his fists.

Justin Gaethje, arguably the hardest puncher in the division, notably claimed that he was surprised by Oliveira's power and that he had never felt anything like it, which is really saying something. If he can force a high pace, take Makhachev out of his comfort zone and avoid getting taken down, a knockout is inevitable.

Stylistically, Islam Makhachev has the edge in this one. Charles Oliveira's former opponents were clearly fearful of his submission threat and seemingly refused to engage with him on the ground. Makhachev will gladly engage in grappling exchanges with Oliveira, which is what makes this matchup so interesting.

Other factors to consider going into this bout include Makhachev's lack of five-round main event experience and the fact that Oliveira will be in enemy territory after having traveled to the eastern hemisphere for a fight for the first time since 2014. The pressure on Makhachev to emulate Khabib Nurmagomedov's success cannot be discounted as well.

Ultimately, Oliveira's route to victory is an early finish. As mentioned earlier, he has the power to put away his Russian counterpart and needs to make this a chaotic fight if he is to emerge victorious. If Makhachev can weather the early storm and stay disciplined, it's his fight to lose.

Our Pick: Islam Makhachev via third-round submission