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Kai Kara-France is in an interesting position. He is 1-2 in his last three fights, having just broken his losing streak by scoring a stunning first-round knockout of Steve Erceg, and he is somehow the most sensible option for Alexandre Pantoja's next UFC flyweight title challenger.
On the surface, a Kara-France title shot seems ludicrous. After all, there are other fighters in the division who appear to be more deserving. Some are on win streaks, and others are even undefeated. Unfortunately, most lack the luster, while others are coming off losses.
Pantoja is in need of compelling challengers, and following UFC 305, there is no option more gripping than a bout with the New Zealander.
Kai Kara-France's position in the UFC flyweight division
At UFC 305, Kai Kara-France flatlined Steve Erceg within four minutes, knocking him down and finishing him follow-up ground-and-pound for a first-round stoppage. The win was impressive, especially when Erceg's recent efforts against the reigning flyweight champion are taken into consideration.
He took Alexandre Pantoja to hell and back at UFC 301, losing via unanimous decision in a bout that many felt he could have won had he made smarter choices in defensive grappling sequences. Pantoja was gassed and lost on the feet, while Erceg looked sharp and in control. The difference-maker was Pantoja's wrestling.
Check out Kai Kara-France's knockout of Steve Erceg:
However, at UFC 305, the tale was different. Kara-France recognized a gap in Erceg's striking in quick fashion. As the much taller man, the Australian fell into the bad habit of punching downward, shortening his own reach and most importantly, exposing his own chin.
With the opening as clear as day, the New Zealander pounced with a looping counterpunch over the top, and it was all he needed. It was a dominant TKO of the man who had just pushed the division's champion to his very limit. However, there's more to Kara-France's case than his win at UFC 305.
His loss to Amir Albazi comes to mind. The two men squared off at UFC Vegas 74, and despite being declared the victor, it was the judges and not Albazi, who had the spotlight. The MMA world was, in part, in uproar over the scorecards as Albazi was awarded a split-decision win.
Many felt that Kara-France, especially with the knockdown he scored in round five, should have won 3-2. MMA Decisions, for example, reported that 19 out of 21 media outlets had Kara-France as the winner. Meanwhile, the New Zealander's teammate, Israel Adesanya, even called for the judges' termination.
Given that Albazi is one of the only other names brought up in current flyweight title fight discussions, there is no one better equipped than Kara-France. This is especially true when the rest of the top five are taken into account.
Kai Kara-France vs. the flyweight top five
If not Kai Kara-France, does anyone else in the division make sense? In short, no. The long answer, however, is more complicated. Ranked #1 is Brandon Royval, who faced and lost to Alexandre Pantoja back on UFC 296, which marked his second loss to the Brazilian.
Royval only just bounced back from his defeat to the champion. Below him is the man he beat, Brandon Moreno. The promotion's first-ever Mexican champion is on a slump, having lost two fights back-to-back, one of which was a second loss to Pantoja himself.
Check out Brandon Moreno's loss to Brandon Royval:
He is currently scheduled to face Amir Albazi, who is ranked #3, at UFC Fight Night 246 on Nov. 2. So he's currently out of the title picture. Then, there is Albazi himself, whose only notable win in the division was the controversial split-decision over Kara-France. Everyone else he's beaten is unranked.
To get a title shot after just one ranked win is exactly the reason Merab Dvalishvili has taken issue with the likes of Umar Nurmagomedov at bantamweight. Given that Albazi is no Nurmagomedov, he is unlikely to receive such favorable treatment. And he certainly shouldn't.
That leaves unbeaten Japanese sensation, Tatsuro Taira, who is ranked #5. Unfortunately, much like Albazi, he has just one ranked win at flyweight. So, while he is undefeated and recently beat Alex Perez, it shouldn't be enough to leapfrog Kara-France as the potential number one contender.
Check out a clip of the flyweight top five:
Additionally, the New Zealander is the only top flyweight, besides the champion, with whom fans are somewhat familiar, largely due to his friendship with Israel Adesanya. The only other ones are Moreno, who is 0-2 in his last two fights, and Manel Kape, who is coming off a listless to Muhammad Mokaev.
Kara-France has name value, is in a good position, and has an exciting fighting style. He is also a funnel into the Oceanic MMA market, which would benefit from him as champion. At the very least, he is compelling option for Pantoja, with a built-in storyline given their 'TUF' history.
The pair competed on 'The Ultimate Fighter 24' in the quarterfinals, where Pantoja beat Kara-France. A narrative of vengeance and growth can be used to sell the fight, with Kara-France presented as perhaps the one ghost from Pantoja's past, unlike Moreno and Royval, who can beat him.
