5 reasons why Cris Cyborg will beat Amanda Nunes

All the news about UFC 232 right now might be surrounding the main event between Jon Jones and Alexander Gustafsson, but flying under the radar somewhat is a fantastic co-main event as UFC Women’s Featherweight champion Cris Cyborg defends her title against current UFC Women’s Bantamweight champion Amanda Nunes.

This looks like Cyborg’s biggest challenge in years; Nunes hasn’t lost a fight since 2014, and since then she’s been on a phenomenal streak and has beaten the likes of Miesha Tate, Ronda Rousey and Valentina Shevchenko. But can ‘The Lioness’ really defeat Cyborg?

Personally, I don’t think she can – and here are 5 reasons why.

#5 Nunes doesn’t have the power to finish Cyborg

Last December we saw Cyborg successfully defend her title against Holly Holm, and when she won a unanimous decision, it became clear that to defeat the Brazilian, any challenger would have to deal with two primary issues. Firstly, they would have to have the durability to stand up to Cyborg’s massive striking power, but secondly and more importantly, they’d need the power themselves to actually hurt the champ.

Holm simply didn’t possess such power, but Nunes – with 5 KO’s or TKO’s on her UFC record – should be different. But is she, really? I’m not so sure. If you actually look at her victories, only two of them really came via her outright striking power – against Ronda Rousey and Shayna Baszler, two fighters noted for a lack of durability.

Of her other TKO’s, Raquel Pennington was broken down over the course of 5 rounds, while Nunes’ wins over Germaine de Randamie and Sheila Gaff came from ground-and-pound. Nunes has hurt other opponents standing – Miesha Tate and Sara McMann were both dropped prior to being submitted – but against an opponent with an iron chin like Cyborg, it doesn’t feel like ‘The Lioness’ will have enough power to win – particularly moving up from 135lbs.

A one-punch finish of Cyborg doesn’t seem possible, and so if Nunes gets drawn into a striking exchange, it doesn’t look like she’ll come out on top.

#4 Cyborg has the stamina advantage

Nunes’ last loss came to Cat Zingano in 2014, and while it was a genuine Fight of the Year Candidate, it was also a strange loss in that Nunes took the first round with an arguable 10-8 score before losing the fight. It was a great victory for Zingano that showed a tremendous amount of heart and determination, but it was also notable for showing Nunes’ stamina issues.

Following that loss, Nunes picked up two quick wins over Shayna Baszler and Sara McMann, but her stamina issues were once again on display in her fight with Valentina Shevchenko, as she almost gave the fight away after tiring out in the third round. Since then, the talk is that her stamina issues have been resolved, as she’s won two five-round fights over Shevchenko in a rematch and Raquel Pennington.

However, what changed most notably in those two fights was the output of ‘The Lioness’. Nunes didn’t come out pushing hard for a finish as she had in her previous first round wins, and while this allowed her not to tire out, it also meant she didn’t put together nearly as much offense as she’d done in previous fights.

Against Cyborg – who casually went 5 rounds with Holly Holm and didn’t appear at all tired – that could prove to be a major problem. Cyborg’s offensive output certainly won’t slow down, and Nunes simply won’t be able to take moments of the fight off as she did against the more passive Shevchenko or the overmatched Pennington. If this goes into the later rounds, then its almost definitely going to favour Cyborg.

#3 Cyborg could bust out her wrestling game

Most fans recognize Cyborg as a deadly striker, and it’s hardly a surprise – the Brazilian has an incredible record with 17 KO’s or TKO’s in 20 wins. Since she arrived in the UFC, she’s largely used her kickboxing game to beat opponents like Holly Holm and Tonya Evinger, but it’s also very forgettable that she’s a hell of a grappler, too.

An accomplished brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Cyborg might not be recognised for her submission game, but she has competed at the prestigious Abu Dhabi World Championships – picking up a bronze medal in the 60kg class in 2009. And due to her incredible physicality, she’s a great wrestler who is tricky to take down – and also has some tremendous takedowns of her own.

She’s showed off her ground-and-pound before – against fighters like Gina Carano and Marloes Coenen – and given Nunes’ last loss came to Cat Zingano, who took her down and then destroyed her from the top position with elbows and punches, there’s every chance that Cyborg will look to ground her smaller foe at UFC 232. If she gets on top of Nunes, then ‘The Lioness’ could be in deep trouble.

#2 Cyborg hasn’t lost in 13 years

Amanda Nunes might be on a nice run of victories, as she’s won 7 fights in a row and hasn’t been beaten since a 2014 loss to Cat Zingano, but that run pales in comparison to what Cyborg has achieved. Since losing her professional MMA debut back in 2005, the Brazilian hasn’t lost a fight in the cage, and realistically she’s barely come close to losing either.

As crazy as it sounds, Cyborg’s last loss actually came three years before Nunes even had a professional fight! Usually, I’d be concerned about a fighter who’s been around for such a long time – most fighters tend to slow down after a decade at the top – but Cyborg has taken such little damage over the years that it doesn’t feel like an issue at all. And once you get so used to winning, it’s hard for someone to stop you.

Granted, Cyborg’s strength of competition is nowhere near on the same level of what Nunes has faced – ‘The Lioness’ counts great fighters like Miesha Tate and Ronda Rousey amongst her victims – but that’s largely because 145lbs is a thinner division than 135lbs and it’s hard to count that against Cyborg - you can only beat who’s in front of you, after all. It’s certainly not like Cyborg has a padded record.

Basically, when you’ve got a fighter who hasn’t lost in 13 years, it’s a bit tricky to imagine them losing any time soon.

#1 Cyborg has a big size advantage

Perhaps the biggest issue for any fighter wanting to beat Cyborg is the huge strength and size advantage that she tends to hold over her opponents. While critics would claim this is down to PED use earlier in her career, she hasn’t actually tested positive for years now and it’s more of an issue surrounding the thin nature of 145lbs category. Simply put, there aren’t that many accomplished female fighters at that weight.

That’s why we’ve seen natural 135lbers like Tonya Evinger, Holly Holm and Yana Kunitskaya step up to challenge her recently, and of course, Nunes is another one on that list. Sure, she’s more accomplished than those three as she’s the current UFC champ, but she’s actually won a lot of her UFC fights by being larger and more powerful than her opponent.

Of her recent victories, I would argue that the majority of them – the win over Raquel Pennington, the first win against Valentina Shevchenko, the win over Miesha Tate, the win over Sara McMann – came from Nunes being the more physically imposing fighter inside the cage. Essentially, inside the cage at least, Nunes is a bully.

But how will she cope with a fighter physically capable of bullying her? Judging by the way she lost to Cat Zingano in 2014, probably not so well. And in female MMA right now, there is no bigger bully around than Cris Cyborg. She’s got all the advantages and I just can’t see her losing at UFC 232.