Should Fernandinho replace Paulinho in the Brazil starting XI?

Brazil’s second match probably posed more questions for the hosts than answers. They looked shorn of guile and invention as they struggled to find an answer to Mexico’s five man defence. When they did penetrate the Mexican defence, they found an imperious Guillermo Ochoa to contend with, who never looked like being beaten. That led to Brazil being part of a frustrating 0-0 draw against Mexico and now require a victory against Cameroon to advance past the group stages.

Paulinho had another subdued performance in Brazilian colours. After a splendid 2012/13 season at Corinthians which culminated in Paulinho getting called up and winning the Bronze Boot in a successful Confederations Cup campaign – he has struggled for form since moving to Tottenham Hotspur. Paulinho’s energy and goal-scoring threat was what earned him a move to London, but he hasn’t shown that yet and has regressed in his first year in England.

Meanwhile, Fernandinho was brilliant for Manchester City who won the title at the end of the season and his form led to calls from the fans for Scolari to start him over Paulinho. However, Scolari has persisted with Paulinho for his first two games of the World Cup against Croatia and Mexico.

The first thing you would see on Paulinho’s dashboard is the lack of passes. Given Gustavo’s deep positioning and Oscar’s positioning on the wing (which meant he couldn’t drop back into central positions), the onus was on him to link midfield and attack but rather than that, he ran forward, at times in advance of the wingers, which exposed huge gaps in the midfield though Mexico never took advantage of that.

He completed only 28 passes, with a measly passing average of 79% – both the lowest in the whole of Brazil’s team (among the players who played the full 90 minutes). This was also a result of his lack of touches on the ball, only 40. Consequently, Brazil were overreliant on the flanks.

Indeed, a look through their overall passing map shows them passing between themselves in defence or going down the wings mostly, ignoring the middle. This made their gameplay predictable as they were forced to go down the flanks and mostly cross the ball in.

The alternative form of attack was to take long range shots. Paulinho’s forward runs yielded just one chance all game (though he could have scored that), and had he taken charge in the middle then Brazil could have really taken control of this match and not struggled for creativity. Some of that blame also goes to Scolari however, as Oscar would have been a way better fit in the #10 role and his presence there would have surely seen Brazil have a stronger foothold in the middle of the park, while not harming Neymar’s performances.

Oscar as a #10 brings creativity and intelligence into play, as he nullifies the opposition midfielders due to incredible pressing, while he also drops deep whenever Paulinho charges forward/drops wide whenever Neymar cuts in to not harm the balance of the side and stop counters. Neymar however strayed forward and him and Paulinho were out of sync. Oscar wasn’t effective on the wings this time as he was against Mexico and he should slot back into his favoured #10 role now. This would have helped Paulinho alot, and take off some creativity burden too from him, but his performance is still inexcusable – he has to play better than he did last night.

Brazil’s passing stats how it was mostly passing between the defence and the flanks (mostly the left). The four Brazilian defenders had the most passes all game. Also, it shows the lack of passing through the middle off the pitch in the Brazil’s final third with subsequent dependence on the flanks and crossing (which Mexico’s three man defence found easier to deal with). Brazil attempted a mammoth 25 crosses, but connected only 6 of them. Paulinho was anonymous on the field and had he put in a trademark energetic performance, Brazil would have found creativity through the middle and an alternative way past the Mexican backline. His lack of drive, invention meant a bad day in the office.

While Brazil may have been off the hook in the Mexico game due to the lack of ability of their opponents, bigger opposition will not be so forgiving. Teams like Spain, Germany and Italy will dominate their current midfield as it stands. It may be time to pick up Fernandinho instead of Paulinho. Fernandinho is much more authoritative and assured in possession, while he is has incredible composure on the ball as well. He rarely gets bullied around and drives his team forward from deep. He has played second-fiddle to Yaya Toure this year at Manchester City but he can show how good he really is in this tournament. Paulinho may not get another chance now, but if he does, he has to perform otherwise his World Cup will be over.

His midfield partner, Luiz Gustavo, put in a decent shift and looks unlikely to be dropped. Paulinho’s goals from midfield have dried up and now it’s up to debate what he offers better than Fernandinho and Hernanes and why Scolari has kept faith in him. Based on his current performances however, he doesn’t deserve a spot in the Brazil lineup.

(Stats courtesy FourFourTwo StatsZone)