Red Bull vs Mercedes vs Aston Martin: What should be Max Verstappen's next move

Max Verstappen signed a multi-year contract with Red Bull in 2022 that would take him to 2028. In 2022, it would have appeared that Verstappen was never going to leave the team. Everything was almost perfect. The car worked great, the resources were in place, and the team had just triumphed after a hard-fought battle against the Lewis Hamilton-Mercedes combination in 2021.

Fast forward to 2024; Max Verstappen has won both titles since then and is the clear favorite to win the 4th title as well. With that being said, everything is not smooth sailing for the team. The probability of Red Bull losing the constructors' championship this season to McLaren, or even finishing 3rd in the championship, is high.

To add to this, the car is not the best on the grid right now, and there have been some serious concerns about the long-term prospects of the team. For 2025, Max Verstappen is set to race for Red Bull. But for 2026, when the new regulations take effect, the contract could state that the driver would stay with the team until 2028. Still, it's safe to say that if the driver doesn't want to race with the team, he's not going to stay.

With that being said, there are 3 possible options for Max in 2026. He could stay with Red Bull, or he could move to either Mercedes or Aston Martin. What would be the best possible option for the driver? Let's take a look.

Max Verstappen's next career move?

Red Bull

Pros

-Max Verstappen knows the team

When it comes to Red Bull, Max Verstappen knows this team inside out because he has been a part of the squad since he joined the sport. The feeling of familiarity can bring stagnation, but what it can also do is bring a belief that this squad knows how to win.

When Max joined the team, Red Bull was not winning titles. It was not even in contention. He's been a part of the journey that took the team to the top and hence knows what it is capable of.

-A proven pedigree

Here are some of the things the Christian Horner-led Red Bull has done. It entered F1 in 2005, won its first race in 2009, won its first title in 2010, and then went on a 4-year unbeaten run, stumbled on a roadblock with a poor Renault PU, dug its way out of the mess with Honda to end Mercedes dominance, and then it once again went on a dominant run.

It's a team that has succeeded in F1 in a slightly unconventional manner. It's not throwing money at a problem and using that to fix everything. It's focused on ticking every checkbox. Be it the car, the engine, the driver, the operations, and even the partnerships it aligns with.

Max has been in this system to know what Red Bull is capable of and he's experienced success with this unit. Of course, it is going through a rough phase right now, but if there's a team that can surmount this challenge, it is this team.

-It would more or less be a frontrunner in 2026

Finally, there is this case of understanding that Red Bull as a team might struggle a bit in the coming regulation, but that doesn't mean the team will fall off a cliff. The team is a frontrunner and one of the top 4 teams.

It is highly unlikely that the team's performance will change drastically and lose its position as one of the dominant teams on the circuit. The resources are there, so is the talent, and similarly, so is every other thing a team needs to be successful. Even if there is a blip, it would not be big enough.

Cons

-The internal power struggle

It's safe to say that one of the major reasons why Red Bull is where it finds itself right now is because of what has been an internal battle for supremacy. The power struggle was as obvious as it could get, and there was an attempt first to get Christian Horner out of the team.

Then apparently there was an attempt to get Helmut Marko fired. To make things worse, Jos Verstappen has made it obvious that he doesn't like Christian Horner and has questioned his leadership every time the team has stumbled. These instances reflect a rather unstable atmosphere within the team, which hurts the long-term prospects.

-The RBPT is a new venture

Arguably one of the biggest question marks is around the PU. Red Bull first stumbled on F1 in 2014 when the regulations changed and it ended up with a poor power unit. In 2026, the team is going to run an in-house power unit.

While a lot of effort has been going on in the background and the facilities are brilliant with the great workforce as well, it's still the first Red Bull power unit. There are definitely question marks around the power unit and it is one thing that maybe even Red Bull might not be the most confident about.

-F1 is cyclic

Finally, for Red Bull, the problem is that the sport is cyclic in nature. What that means is that what goes up must come down. Dominance is not constant, and a team that's winning for a while has to fall from a pedestal one day or another. Red Bull has been winning for 4 years now. It would be a big surprise if once again the team nails the next regulation as well.

Mercedes

Pros

-Mercedes PU should be good

The first thing that works for Mercedes is the power unit. Max Verstappen knows firsthand how big a role the power unit plays. He himself has spent multiple years looking at the rear wing of the cars Lewis Hamilton drove to the title with power units that were just on a different stratosphere.

Going into 2026, expecting Mercedes to have a strong power unit is something that can be almost taken for granted.

-Foundations are strong

Secondly, just like Red Bull, what works for Mercedes is that the foundations of the team are very strong. The Brackley-based team knows how to win, and while it has stumbled after an 8-year run at the top, this year has been all about finding its footing.

The team has already won three races this season and while every piece has not fit the puzzle, there are quite a few that have already. Toto Wolff knows how to win titles and that proven pedigree is going to come good sooner rather than later.

-F1's cyclic nature

Finally, we can't discount the fact that Mercedes will have four years where the team has continued to build and make improvements after being blindsided in 2022.

By 2026, Wolff would have plugged the holes and the team would be in a position to fight back once again. That's something that Max Verstappen would also be mindful of when he thinks about a future at a team like Mercedes.

Cons

-Mercedes is slower than McLaren

Arguably the biggest indictment if McLaren wins the title will be on Mercedes this season because what that means is that a works team has lost to its customer.

You don't want that happening in F1, and you certainly don't want that to be the story when you're trying to lure the biggest talent on the grid in Max Verstappen. McLaren winning the title will raise questions about the quality of the Mercedes aerodynamics unit.

In 2026, even if the team produces the best power unit with McLaren having the same one, the German team has to create their differentiating factor in aerodynamics and the chassis, which is where they are lagging at the moment.

-Pitting against Kimi Antonelli?

If Kimi Antonelli is this prodigious talent in F1 who can do a brilliant job in the car, then how is it a smart decision for Max Verstappen to step into a team where Toto Wolff is almost a fatherly figure to the young driver?

Assuming Wolff treats everything equally, should Max go into an environment where there is a driver who could not only be a challenge to him but possibly court favor with the team principal? This has all the makings of what happened in 2007 at McLaren, where Fernando Alonso ended up finding himself in a very lonely place within the team, and hence he left.

-The ghosts of the past

It's interesting that even Toto Wolff touched on the comments and actions made during the 2021 F1 title battle between Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton and how that may have had an impact on the negotiations.

The Dutch driver often doesn't say much to anyone and has been famous for being Teflon when it comes to outside noise. With that being said, the 2021 F1 title battle almost became personal, and some of the comments thrown around about Max Verstappen from Mercedes continue to stick. Will the driver be willing to move past it? There has been evidence that he has, but it remains to be seen.

Aston Martin

Pros

-The facilities

Something that is often not touched on enough is the facilities that Lawrence Stroll has built at Silverstone. During the F1 British GP, the media personnel were taken for a tour around Aston Martin's new facility and in what seems like a consensus view, they are years ahead of anything any other team has on the grid.

In contrast, Max Verstappen's current team, Red Bull's wind tunnel, is still due for a revamp and has been in place for a long time. The same is true for quite a few other top teams.

-The personnel

At the moment, the name that could sway Max Verstappen to Aston Martin is Adrian Newey, but the entire squad that has been put together is something that almost guarantees success. There's Andy Cowell, who was responsible for Mercedes HPP's success, who will head the operation. Then we have Dan Fallows and Eric Blandin.

Then there's Enrico Cardille from Ferrari, amongst many other key members who continue to join the team. It is a super team of sorts in place, and a Max Verstappen could just be the final piece of the puzzle.

-Lawrence Stroll's ambition

Finally, one thing that stands out with the way Lawrence Stroll has approached Aston Martin is that he wants it to be a success. That's his aim, and that's what he wants to achieve.

For a team that wants to build the best possible car and for a driver like Max Verstappen who wants to have the fastest car under him, this is possibly a marriage made in heaven.

Cons

-No proof of concept

The biggest problem for Max Verstappen if he wants to take a punt with Aston Martin is that there's no proof of concept. Everything indicates that this team is going to be a success in F1. Unfortunately, there aren't many results to back the team up.

Aston Martin has been 5th in the championship last season, and by the looks of it, 5th it will be this time as well. Until there is a proof of concept, it's going to be hard for Max Verstappen to make a leap of faith.

-What's the team's objective?

This is another important question because there have now been questions asked about the team's philosophy, where Lance Stroll continues to be a part of the team solely because his father runs the team. A driver like Stroll should be in F1, but should he be in a car that could potentially fight for the title?

Would Max Verstappen want to be a part of an operation where Lance Stroll is a second driver? And given Stroll's performance on the track, could that probably mean that not much might come from the second car? This is a question that the driver might have to answer if he thinks about joining Red Bull.

-Question mark around Honda

What not many have accounted for is that Honda left F1 in 2022. The Japanese brand shut down the facilities and moved the employees into different divisions that season, only to mark a return in 2023. That year of absence meant that the brand had to work a lot on getting the entire system back in place and fully functioning as well.

There is a deficit that Honda is working from, and Max Verstappen of all people is aware of that for sure. This might be one of the things that gives him a stutter when it comes to making the final call.

Conclusion

Well, once we lay down the pros and cons, it does give an idea of how tough it is to make a call either way. So what call should Max Verstappen make? Well, I leave the decision, with you. So, my readers, what do you think the Red Bull driver should do as his next career move?

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