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If reports are to be believed, Liam Lawson has emerged as the frontrunner to be Sergio Perez's replacement at Red Bull should a mid-season swap become viable. The Mexican has been on a poor run of form that is reminiscent of the drop in performance that he goes through almost every season. This time around however things are different.
Red Bull does not have a car that is absolutely miles ahead of its competition, which has not allowed Perez the opportunity to make up for his below-par qualifying efforts. As a result, the team is looking for a change, and rightly so. It is looking for a driver who could be closer to Max Verstappen in the pecking order and performance, and hence be an asset for the team in the constructors championship.
The contenders for now appear to be Daniel Ricciardo, Yuki Tsunoda, and Liam Lawson. These are the three drivers who have found themselves in a position where they could replace Sergio Perez if their performances are up to par.
If reports are to be believed, Liam Lawson's Red Bull test went well and impressed the team enough to put him in a position where he's the one who is being backed by the team as a replacement for Sergio Perez.
The driver does not even have a full season of racing under him and could still end up as a Red Bull driver. Looking at the issue in some detail, the choice doesn't appear to be the right one. Here's why:
#1 Liam Lawson is yet to prove himself
Liam Lawson showed impressive pace in the Silverstone test, according to reports. Sadly, that alone is not enough to lay any claims on the Red Bull seat. Last season, Daniel Ricciardo was within a tenth of Max Verstappen's time in the same test, and what we've seen this season is that the test performance alone is not enough of a barometer to hire a driver. There has to be concrete proof of performances in races where the driver has proved his mettle.
Ricciardo did not do it when he started the 2024 F1 season as the top prospect to replace Sergio Perez, and Liam Lawson certainly hasn't achieved it yet in his fledgling career.
#2 We've seen what happened to Alex Albon and Pierre Gasly
It's not too long ago that Red Bull had a situation where it became a revolving door for talent. After just 6 months in 2019, Pierre Gasly had dissuaded the entire senior management to such an extent that he was replaced.
Alex Albon lasted 18 months, and by the time he was done, he looked like a spent force. Why? Being teammates with Max Verstappen is no easy task. It is a position filled with stress and doubt. Young drivers like Gasly and Albon found it hard to understand why they were losing so often to Max and didn't have the maturity to not take the deficit to heart.
Liam Lawson would, unfortunately, be heading into the same den in a possibly worse situation. The New Zealander does not even have half a season's worth of experience that the likes of Albon and Gasly had.
Of course, there is a possibility that he might surprise everyone and do a brilliant job. But what if he doesn't? Insanity is sometimes defined as doing the same thing again and again and expecting different results. Will Red Bull be a victim of that?
#3 Give Yuki Tsunoda or Daniel Ricciardo the opportunity to replace Sergio Perez
The most important thing here is that both Daniel Ricciardo and Yuki Tsunoda are drivers who have a decent amount of experience in F1, including as a part of the Red Bull setup. If either of them were to replace Sergio Perez, then what the team would have is a driver who would not face a huge cultural shock.
If Perez is axed mid-season, Liam Lawson could be moved to RB, where he could be assessed in terms of how well he performs in the car. There would be enough races for everyone to conclude how good or bad a prospect the New Zealander is. If Lawson does pass with flying colors, he can be moved to the senior team in 2025, when he can tackle the challenge with at least some level of experience under his belt.
Conclusion
At this stage, it appears that Red Bull might be putting Liam Lawson in a position that the likes of Gasly and Albon found themselves in. What's worse is that Liam would have a more daunting task in front of him than the other two, as he faces a more mature and lethal Max Verstappen while himself having next to no experience in F1.
Replacing Sergio Perez is a brilliant prospect for a driver like Lawson. But if it leads to the New Zealander suffering the same fate as the likes of Gasly and Albon, then it might not be the best call for everyone.
