2024 F1 US GP: Preview and Predictions

The 2024 F1 US GP kicks off the last quarter of the season, the one where the stakes are at an all-time high. Since 2021, we've not had a season where both the titles are still up for grabs. McLaren leads the constructors championship while Max Verstappen holds on to the lead in the drivers title.

The race in Austin has been especially kind for Max Verstappen. The Red Bull driver has not lost here since 2021. Ironically, all three races have had Lewis Hamilton following him as the chequered flag fell.

With this being the first race after the 3-week gap in the calendar, it is very important in terms of what the teams bring to the car. Multiple teams are expected to bring new upgrades to the car for the one last push to the line.

How much impact would it have on the race weekend and what can we expect from the F1 US GP? Let's take a look at our preview and predictions.

2024 F1 US GP: Preview

Key Storylines

#1 The Red Bull upgrade

All eyes would be on what the Milton Keynes-based team brings to the car. The team has had its season derailed significantly because of an incorrect development direction. There have been a few experiments run by the team to mitigate that, but the true impact would be seen in Austin when the upgrades are put on the car.

Could we expect Red Bull to jump straight to the top of the pecking order? That might not be the case because McLaren has continued to develop the car and opened up a decent gap. If all works, however, we could see a scenario where Max Verstappen is possibly more confident in the car than has been the case recently.

#2 The upgrades from every team

Other than RedBull a few teams are scheduled to bring upgrades as well. It's not entirely clear if McLaren is also bringing something to the F1 US GP but Ferrari and Mercedes are going to bring forth some changes in their cars.

The track at Austin has a somewhat different demand for the car compared to what we've had at the last few races. This could potentially lead to a scenario where we see a slight change in the pecking order, both at the front and the midfield. The upgrades are therefore going to be pivotal in determining who falls where when all is said and done.

#3 The impact of the resurfaced track

Since the track at Austin is built on a Marshland, it ends up being bumpy whenever it isn't resurfaced periodically. This was one of the key factors last season when the bumpy nature of the track played a role in making McLaren and Mercedes a much bigger threat for Max Verstappen.

The track has been resurfaced for the F1 US GP this weekend, and the MotoGP race held early in the year also received positive reviews. It would be interesting to see what impact it would have on the overall pecking order this time around.

Form Guide

On Form

Lando Norris has matured as the season has progressed. He has become more and more measured in the manner in which he approaches races in a car with which he can win every race he goes into.

Norris is coming into the F1 US GP on the back of a race weekend in Austin, where he decimated the competition. With 52 points to catch Max Verstappen in 6 race weekends, there's no scope for mistakes from the driver.

Out of Form

Mercedes has been a major disappointment in the second half of the season which has led to the team falling more or less in the role of the 4th best team on the grid.

The team has done well in Austin even in the ground effect era. The German squad would be hoping to put the pieces together and take a few steps forward this weekend.

2024 F1 US GP: Predictions

Who will win the race?

Red Bull is bringing upgrades and that's an important step for them. So are most of the other teams. With that being said, McLaren seems to have the edge over the field when it comes to performance at these tracks, which will play a pivotal role for a driver like Lando Norris.

Norris has done well around Austin and was in contention for the win last year as well. The probability of young Brit to close down the gap to Max Verstappen this weekend as well by winning the F1 US GP are high.

Surprise of the weekend (Team)

This might be a surprise but keep an eye on Mercedes this weekend. The car has worked brilliantly on tracks with fast speed sections and direction changes. There would be a lot of it around Austin. To add to it, Lewis Hamilton tends to do well at the F1 US GP and has trailed Max Verstappen home in the last three races.

Could we see something similar this weekend in terms of performance from the F1 legend?

Surprise of the weekend (Driver)

Going with the theme of the previous point, we're going with Lewis Hamilton as the surprise of the weekend. The F1 legend has been brilliant around Austin, and his record speaks volumes.

The Brit's on-track performances leading up to the F1 US GP weren't the strongest. Hamilton looks forward to ending the Mercedes partnership on a high. Do we expect him to win the race? Probably not, but expect a podium charge at the very least.

Disappointment of the weekend (Team)

The F1 US GP might not be a weekend that Ferrari is too happy about. The car has some inherent deficiencies that tend to surface on tracks with fast-speed sections. Austin's first sector is full of the same which could hurt the car's overall performance.

In almost every recent race weekend, Charles Leclerc emerged as a possible contender for a win. We might struggle to see that happening in Austin this weekend.

Disappointment of the weekend (Driver)

The last 6 races could possibly be career-defining for Sergio Perez. On one side, the frontrunner to replace him (Daniel Ricciardo) is now out of the picture. On the other side, there's Liam Lawson snapping at the heels with an opportunity at RB,

While the New Zealander will be trying to impress at RB, the task for Sergio Perez is simple—to be the able deputy of Max Verstappen at Red Bull. Unfortunately, we just don't see him accomplishing that goal at the F1 US GP.