3 reasons why New Zealand can upset India in 3-Test series 2024

New Zealand have had a horrid World Test Championship (WTC) cycle so far, especially away from home. While many expect the Blackcaps to crumble in a similar fashion against India, who hardly miss a beat on home turf, there is a lot to suggest that they can spoil things up.

New Zealand have handed India an early wake-up call with a brilliant first session of play in Bengaluru. The bowlers have made the most of the conditions that mirror ones back home, but the visitors need to ensure the pressure is sustained. A three-match Test series in India can be as long as a lifetime for the opposing teams, with New Zealand having borne the brunt of it in the past.

Going through a transition, a change in leadership, and an injured Kane Williamson - New Zealand are not even close to their most stable self. But, with the odds stacked against them, they have an air of 'nothing to lose', and at times those are the most challenging oppositions to face.

On that note, let us take a look at three reasons why New Zealand can upset India in the 3-Test series in 2024.

#1 They have played enough cricket in the subcontinent of late

New Zealand are coming on the back of a challenging tour of Sri Lanka. The Blackcaps struggled against an in-form Lankan unit, and suffered a 0-2 whitewash. Despite the demoralizing result, it gave them valuable playing time in subcontinent conditions.

They were solid in glimpses, particularly the first Test where they were in the game until the final day. Sides usually come into India and crumble instantly after failing to adapt to the conditions. However, New Zealand will not find the conditions so alien after recently being subjected to something similar in Sri Lanka.

After spending considerable time in those conditions, New Zealand players will be physically and mentally adapted to playing spin, anticipating the low level of bounce, and various other aspects.

#2 They have a bowling attack tailor-made for subcontinent conditions

Barring the second Test against Sri Lanka where the New Zealand bowlers were taken for over 600 runs, the Blackcaps put in a relatively solid bowling display for a visiting side in the subcontinent. William O'Rourke cracked the code to bowl in the subcontinent immediately while the spinners led by Ajaz Patel got into the act as the pitch grew old.

Now looking at the bowling attack independently, without the Sri Lankan series result, it arguably has the ideal composition, versatility and traits that a visiting team wishes for during a tour of India.

Firstly, the presence of spin bowling all-rounders helps with the balance of the side, gives them additional bowling options and the batting unit takes care of itself. They have an experienced candidate in Ajaz Patel leading the bowling unit, who has had success in India before as well.

However, the surprise package is the pace unit, which not many teams pay heed to. The trio of Matt Henry, Tim Southee, and William O'Rourke bring different assets to the table with relentless accuracy, experience, pace, and bounce respectively.

Even if they are met with rank turners later in the series, New Zealand have enough quality on the bench to alter their bowling combination with the same potency.

#3 They have some excellent players of spin

Do not go by New Zealand's recent series defeat to Sri Lanka, underestimating them on that basis would be a grave mistake. The Indian players have first-hand experience of how good some New Zealand batters are against spin.

Tom Latham is arguably one of the best players of spin from outside the subcontinent, which is often overlooked. His command over footwork, ability to play the sweep, and trademark temperament make him arguably New Zealand's most important batter. He was one of the Kiwis' lone bright spots in their humiliating 0-3 whitewash in 2017. The left-handed batter had scored a fifty in each of the three Tests on that occasion.

Kane Williamson's spin-playing credentials need no mention. On the other hand, Daryl Mitchell also has a keen eye while playing the tweakers. He has only played one Test in India so far (which includes a fifty), and most of his exploits against spin in the country have been in white-ball cricket. However, he has built a reputation of being a solid player of spin on the back of those exploits.

The likes of Devon Conway and Rachin Ravindra are also not too far behind, with considerable experience playing in such conditions aiding their cause.