Big 12 championship scenarios: Top predictions for Week 12 ft. Texas vs Oklahoma State

A week ago, most would have predicted that the Big 12 Championship game would feature Texas and the Oklahoma State Cowboys. However, Saturday's defeat of the Cowboys against the UCF Knights (45-3) put several other contenders back in the race to reach the title game.

Now, the Oklahoma Sooners, Iowa State Cyclones, and Kansas State Wildcats are all bidding for a spot to face the Longhorns in the big game. Today we are exploring the most likely combinations that we could see at the Big 12 championship game. To be clear, given the current state of standings and the possible variations, accurately predicting the final game is a difficult task.

Big 12 championship game scenarios

#1 Texas Longhorns

The Longhorns need to win at least one of the two games remaining in their schedule to make the Big 12 championship game and both of them if they want their future to be in their hands.

#2 Oklahoma State Cowboys

For their part, the Cowboys need to win out, and for the Longhorns to win out. Other scenarios could see OSU progressing, but they're too many and too complicated to list in this article. The greatest threat to Oklahoma State is the Iowa State Cyclones since they lost to them in the regular season.

#3 Oklahoma Sooners

We already know what Steve Sarkisian's men need to do to reach the Big 12 championship game, but what would Oklahoma need to do to make it a Red River Showdown?

First of all, the Sooners need to win their remaining encounters against BYU and TCU, and for Texas to lose this weekend to Iowa State or for Oklahoma State to lose one of its two remaining games against Houston or BYU. But if the Longhorns lose, they could miss the game, making the Sooners progress but it wouldn't be a Red River Showdown.

#4 Kansas State Wildcats

The task is clear for K-State; they need to win the rest of their encounters and hope for both Oklahoma State and Oklahoma to lose at least one game each. A recent clarification on the tiebreaker rules by the Big 12 has made the task more difficult for the Wildcats who could have otherwise advanced just by beating Iowa State (Beat OSU) and Kansas (Beat OU).

The rules, as explained now, give precedence in a tiebreaker to the schools that faced off against each other. K-State lost to OSU and didn't play OU.

#5 Iowa State Cyclones

This is by far the most complicated path to the Big 12 championship game. The Cyclones need to win out, expect both Oklahoma programs to win out and for K-State to lose both games. That way, there's a four-way tie for first place between Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State. The Cyclones would advance by virtue of having beaten both the Cowboys and Longhorns. For starters, Iowa State needs to defeat Texas over the weekend.