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The Big Ten is cruising into position for the first expanded College Football Playoff. Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State are all well positioned for CFP spots, and sleeper Indiana still has a purchaser's chance. So what could go wrong for the Big Ten? Here are five scenarios that could hurt their CFP situation.
Five worst-case Playoff scenarios to watch out for in the Big Ten
#1 A rash of league upsets
The aforementioned trio of Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State should all cruise into the Big Ten. The league could have the possibility of a fourth team if Indiana can keep pulling rabbits out of hats, but the league could inflict damage on itself in a hurry.
For instance, Ohio State needs to avoid another Michigan loss. One, the Buckeyes don't want a second (or potentially third) loss, Two, Michigan is certainly not sniffing the playoff, and such a loss would devalue OSU's body of work.
Likewise, Oregon would do well not to lose to Purdue this weekend. That's not a big ask - the Boilermakers are fairly awful. But those top three teams can only knock themselves out of the Playoff. Otherwise, ESPN's projection that each has been a 79 and 84% chance of making the field seems pretty accurate.
#2 Don't let Indiana have TOO much fun
The Hoosiers going 6-0 has been a great story. While the FPI projections have the Hoosiers with a 45% shot at the Playoff, the league is probably better off if the Hoosiers don't muck things up for everybody else.
A 12-0 Indiana team - bizarre as that would be - isn't a problem. But a 10-2 Indiana team that, say, beats Ohio State but loses to Washington and Michigan would gum things up tremendously.
The Hoosiers are a great story, but either a 12-0 IU team or a 9-3 Indiana team is probably best for the B1G in the Playoff. The Hoosiers don't want to be in the in-betweens because they could well lose a beauty contest. Speaking of which...
#3 The SEC getting chalk results
There's no secret that the SEC is the biggest issue that the Big Ten has in grabbing Playoff berths. The SEC is virtually certain to grab three spots, with four or even five a possibility.
The Big Ten would prefer to see the SEC concentrate its power in a few Goliaths. A 12-0 Texas team and an 11-1 Georgia team running most of the other squads out of CFP competition would help the Big Ten.
The Big Ten's nightmare would be having four or five 10-2 SEC teams, two or three of which logically couldn't play in the league championship. In a beauty contest, a 10-2 SEC team probably bests a 10-2 Big Ten team.
#4 Group of five chaos
Similarly, Group of Five schools could muck everything up. For instance, if Boise State loses the Mountain West title game to an overachieving UNLV team, that could spell two bids from that league, causing a 9-3 or 10-2 Big Ten team to land deeper on the Playoff bubble. Avoiding group of five chaos could be huge.
#5 Lacking Heisman contenders
It's a fairly open Heisman Trophy race, and for a league that could be politically manuvering for the last spot in the field, Heisman candidates could help - or a lack of them could hurt. Not only is Boise a Group of Five star, but running back Ashton Jeanty is a Heisman candidate who plenty of fans would love to see.
Ohio State and Penn State lack obvious Heisman candidates, and while Dillon Gabriel has been fine, he's not a super obvious favorite. Picking up some Heisman momentum among the top teams of the Big Ten could help their CFP situation.
What do you think about the Big Ten's CFP situation? Share your thoughts below in the comments section:
