2024 March Madness First Round upset predictions : Exploring teams that can break the NCAA Tournament bracket ft. New Mexico

Upsets are the most popular part of March Madness. Many NCAA Tournament live to see the lower-seeded teams taking out the powerhouses. Whether it's a No. 8 seed winning a title, a No. 11 seed reaching the Final Four or a No. 15 seed making the Sweet 16, fans love it.

So who will be this season's Cinderella? Here's a quick check of some likely March Madness bracket busters.

March Madness teams that can break the NCAA Tournament bracket

No. 11 seeded New Mexico

First, notice this. The early odds line for first-round games has the No. 11 seeded Lobos(21-11) as a 2.5 point favorite over No. 6-seeded Clemson(26-9). That's two forces in action.

First, yes, Clemson is overseeded. But second, the Lobos are the real deal. They're the kind of veteran March Madness squad that will overachieve its way into ruining brackets.

Richard Pitino's 26-9 squad just won the Mountain West Conference title. That league was probably better than the ACC and Pac-12 this season.

New Mexico scores well (81.7 points per game) and is tough on the glass (12.7 offensive rebounds per game). With four double-digit scorers, they have balance and are coming in hot. The Lobos are a hot Sweet 16 pick.

No. 11 seeded NC State

It's not just mid-major conference teams that can be spoilers. The Wolfpack(22-14) come in hot off an ACC Tournament title and could easily beat Texas Tech(23-10).

State has four players who score 11.5 points ppg or more, and can light up scoreboards. Meanwhile, Texas Tech comes in 7-7 in its last 14 games and isn't the most ferocious of favorites.

On the other hand, NC State won five games in five days to reach the NCAA Tournament. The last three games, wins over Duke, Virginia and North Carolina, represent victories over three other NCAA Tournament teams.

In each game, NC State held the opponent to a lower shooting percentage, finishing by holding the No. 1 seed Tar Heels to 37% shooting. That'll work in March.

No. 12 seeded McNeese State

The Cowboys and coach Will Wade are a massive danger to No. 5 seed Gonzaga. At 30-3, McNeese is that rare team that can score (80.4 ppg, 37th in nation) and defend (61.5 ppg allowed, fifth best in nation).

The Cowboys shoot 38.8% from 3-point range (eighth in nation) and hold opponents to 38.5% overall shooting (second best in nation).

McNeese has four double-digit scorers, three of whom shoot better than 40% from 3-point range. The Cowboys also average just 9.8 turnovers per game. 18th-ranked Gonzaga(25-7) will have to be crisp to outlast McNeese, and the Cowboys are a nice dark horse March Madness Sweet 16 pick.

No. 12 seeded James Madison

Unlike the 5-foot-4 former U.S. president whose name the school bears, James Madison is daunting. The 31-3 Dukes are ninth in the nation in scoring, putting up 84.4 ppg.

They also grab 11.6 offensive rebounds per game and hold opponents to 28.8% 3-point shooting (fifth in nation). JMU has won its last 13 games in a row and dominated the Sun Belt Conference tournament.

Guard Terrence Edwards is JMU's top scorer (17.4 ppg). He teams well with 6-foot-9 forward T.J. Bickerstaff (13.4 ppg, 8.5 rpg).

James Madison only uses eight players in its typical rotation, but seven are excellent 3-point shooters. Wisconsin could be facing a negative March Madness experience.

No. 12 seeded Grand Canyon

The Antelopes are unlike many mid-major teams. There's no particular area of unusual expertise, but they're just a solid team. At 29-4, Bryce Drew's team will be a handful for 15th-ranked Saint Mary's (25-7) in the first round.

Grand Canyon averages 11.8 offensive rebounds per game and offsets relatively limited height with surprising quickness.

Guard Tyon Grant-Foster is one of the most underrated players in the entire tournament. On the year, Grant-Foster averages 19.8 ppg and 6.0 rpg.

The former Kansas guard comes into the NCAA Tournament with scoring totals of 21, 29, 19, 28 and 22 points in his last five games. Saint Mary's better have an answer for Grant-Foster or March Madness will follow.

No. 13 seed Samford

The Samford Bulldogs could be a perfect storm for an overrated Kansas team. Samford is fifth in the nation in scoring, putting up 86.0 ppg.

Samford shoots the ball well (49.3%, 11th nationally) and hits 3-pointers (9.9 per game, 39.3% shooting, seventh in the nation). Samford also averages 10 steals per game and could trip up 17th-ranked Kansas(22-10), which began the season as the No. 1-ranked team in the preseason poll.

Samford(29-5) has four double-digit scorers, but 6-9 forward Achor Achor is the best. The Australian product shoots 59.9%, but is also connecting on 44.5% of his 3-point attempts.

In his last four games, Achor has scored 21, 12, 28 and 25 points. Kansas better be ready or end up on the March Madness losing side.