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The Indiana Pacers take on the Toronto Raptors on Tuesday for the fourth and final time this season. The Raptors will look to win their season series 3-1.
In their last matchup in Indiana on Feb. 26, Toronto secured a 130-122 road victory, led by 24 points from wing RJ Barrett. However, the Raptors (25-53, 12th in the Eastern Conference) have since fallen off considerably, going 3-17 over their last 20 games.
That includes a season-worst 15-game losing streak, which ended following Friday's 117-111 road win over the Milwaukee Bucks. They followed that up with a 130-122 home victory against the Washington Wizards on Sunday. So, despite being eliminated from playoff contention, they have a chance to win their third straight game.
As for the Pacers (45-34, sixth in the East), they've won two straight games and four of their last five amid their quest to avoid the play-in tournament. They are coming off a key 117-115 home win over the Miami Heat on Sunday, which helped them maintain their top-six status.
However, Indiana is only a game ahead of the seventh-seeded Philadelphia 76ers (44-35). So, its final three contests are projected to be critical.
Indiana Pacers vs Toronto Raptors: Preview, starting lineups, betting tips and prediction
Tuesday's matchup between the Pacers and Raptors takes place at the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario. The contest tips off at 7 p.m. EDT on Bally Sports Indiana and SN. It can also be streamed on NBA League Pass and FuboTV.
Additionally, fans can tune in to the showdown via radio with 93.5/107.5 The Fan and SN App Radio.
Moneyline: Pacers (-650) vs Raptors (+475)
Spread: Pacers (-11.5) vs Raptors (+11.5)
Total (Over/Under): Pacers (o239.0) vs Raptors (u239.0)
Editor's note: The odds could change closer to tip-off, as the odds listed were based on available information at the time of writing.
Indiana Pacers vs Toronto Raptors: Preview
Despite being on a two-game winning streak, the Raptors have a strong incentive to tank. They traded their top-six protected 2024 first-round pick to the San Antonio Spurs for center Jakob Poeltl at last year's trade deadline. Meanwhile, they have the NBA's sixth-worst record with four games remaining.
Toronto essentially threw in the towel on trying to be competitive after star forward Scottie Barnes underwent left hand surgery in early March. Since then, the franchise's lineups have featured a hodgepodge of players, with multiple starters regularly unavailable.
Nonetheless, the Raptors are only 2.0 games behind the seventh-worst Memphis Grizzlies (27-51). So, they will likely use their last four contests to cement their top-six draft lottery odds.
That means young prospects like Barrett, rookie sharpshooter rookie Gradey Dick and sophomore wing Ochai Agbaji should continue getting extended opportunities to develop.
As for the Pacers, they have one of the NBA's highest-octane offenses, ranking second in offensive rating (120.0). They've been spearheaded by their one-two punch of stars Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, whom they acquired from Toronto on Jan. 17.
Meanwhile, Indiana is arguably the league's deepest team, ranking first in bench scoring (46.4 points per game). It also tops the league in overall scoring (122.7 ppg) and field-goal percentage (50.5%).
However, the Pacers are only 24th in defensive rating (117.6), making their success highly dependent on their shots falling.
Fortunately for Indiana, it should have advantages on both ends against the Raptors. They rank just 24th in offensive rating (111.9) and 25th in defensive rating (117.8). Meanwhile, they've been even worse since March 1, ranking second-last in both categories.
Regarding injury reports, Toronto will be without three starters, as Barnes (hand), Poeltl (finger) and Immanuel Quickley (rest) have all been ruled out. That is also the case for reserves Chris Boucher (knee), Jontay Porter (personal) and D.J. Carton (ankle). Meanwhile, Dick is considered questionable due to a right groin contusion.
As for Indiana, shooting guard Bennedict Mathurin is the only player listed on its injury report. He remains out for the season after undergoing right shoulder surgery last month.
Given the Pacers' significant size advantage over the depleted Raptors, their frontcourt duo of Siakam and Myles Turner could be primed for big nights.
Indiana Pacers vs Toronto Raptors: Starting lineups, subs and rotations
Indiana and Toronto's projected starting lineups for Tuesday's showdown are as follows:
Pacers: PG - Tyrese Haliburton, SG - Andrew Nembhard, SF - Aaron Nesmith, PF - Pascal Siakam, C - Myles Turner
Indiana is projected to have its entire starting five, featuring Haliburton, Siakam and Turner alongside combo guard Andrew Nembhard and 3-and-D wing Aaron Nesmith.
Off the bench, their go-to players should be feisty veteran point guard T.J. McConnell, high-flying forward Obi Toppin and rookie shooting guard Ben Sheppard. Reserve big man Jalen Smith and veteran sharpshooter Doug McDermott could also be part of the Pacers' 10-man lineup.
However, if the game ends up being a blowout, as it is projected to be, Indiana will likely turn toward its third-stringers.
Raptors: PG - Javon Freeman-Liberty, SG - Gary Trent Jr, SF - RJ Barrett, PF - Ochai Agbaji, C - Kelly Olynyk
With Toronto missing Quickley, Barnes and Poeltl, point guard Javon Freeman-Liberty, Agbaji and veteran stretch-five Kelly Olynyk are expected take their starting spots.
If cleared to play, Dick will likely serve as the Raptors' sixth man. Meanwhile, veteran wing Bruce Brown should see sizeable minutes as a glue guy off the bench. Outside of those two, Toronto will likely disperse its bench minutes among various lesser-known prospects.
Editor's note: These are predicted lineups, which could change depending on the availability of players whose status are uncertain.
Indiana Pacers vs Toronto Raptors: Betting tips
Barrett has a 23.5 over/under points prop for Tuesday's contest, well above his season scoring average (19.2 ppg). However, the 23-year-old has scored 24-plus points in three of his last four games.
Meanwhile, Barrett is averaging 23.5 ppg over two games against Indiana this season. Given that Toronto is undermanned, and the Pacers are a bottom-seven defensive team, it makes sense to take the over.
As for Siakam, he has a 22.5 over/under points prop, slightly above his season average (22.0 ppg). The two-time All-Star has scored 22-or-fewer points in five of his last six games.
However, Siakam has a favorable matchup against a Raptors squad depleted of frontcourt depth. He is averaging 25.0 ppg through two outings against his former team. So, barring extended rest in an early blowout, he should be able to hit the over.
Indiana Pacers vs Toronto Raptors: Prediction
The Pacers will likely be far more inclined to pick up a victory on Tuesday. Meanwhile, they are near full strength, while the Raptors are severely shorthanded.
So, despite playing on the road, Indiana should have a good chance of covering the spread (-11.5).
Furthermore, given both teams’ sub-par defenses and the Raptors' lack of an interior presence, they should surpass their over/under points total of 239.0. They did so in each of their previous three matchups.
Also Read: NBA Clutch Player of the Year 2024: Top 5 candidates ft. Pascal Siakam (Week 24)
