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The Marvel Cinematic Universe isn't really having as a great run as it used to. Eternals (2021), Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (2023), and The Marvels (2023) all proved to be a disaster. Though we got a few good ones too, and Deadpool & Wolverine (2024) should be on the top of it.
Recently, we got to see Anthony Mackie adding Cap's shield to his flying role in Captain America: Brave New World, but what we hoped for didn't really come to fruition; that's the worst of all four movies in the franchise if we go by ratings. That would be only 48% critic approval on Rotten Tomatoes. Though it still managed to pick up a bucketful of earnings from the box office.
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Now Thunderbolts* is on the line, and it sure is expected to fall like a thunderbolt. But commercial expectations from it are, sort of, disappointing and lesser than the new Captain America film. The Hollywood Reporter reports that it's expected to open between $63 million and $77 million in the domestic box office; BNW opened with $88 million.
Thunderbolts* is likely to disappoint the ones expecting this
The Hollywood Reporter also reports that after exhibitors saw the film's footage at CinemaCon, they found it appealing and fun. Trailers gave the same vibes, and there's Bucky (Sebastian Stan), aka the Winter Soldier. Some think that he should've been Captain America, but he's cooler this way.
Fans are likely to flock in to see the Winter Soldier finally getting his time as an (anti)hero. Another thing to consider here would be the production budget of Thunderbolts*, which is reportedly around the same as Captain America: Brave New World (not considering the reported additional cost of reshoots).
That, and the new Avengers: Doomsday cast announcement that included members of Thunderbolts. So you can bet that the ones preparing for the Russos' next big outing are likely to be seen in theaters to know where the story is headed when Thunderbolts* arrives.
Considering that, even if it doesn't open to a weekend akin to Brave New World, there's a high possibility it will perform better in the long run.
How the Multiverse Saga is looking box office-wise
When Tony Stark (Robert Downey Jr.) finally went to rest after giving Thanos a taste of his own medicine, the future of the MCU appeared uncertain. Though it was certain that it wasn't the end. So it began with a fully featured Black Widow movie that didn't really perform well at the box office, earning $380 million against the $288 million budget during its theatrical run.
But we also got one bang-on performer in the Multiverse Saga, Spider-Man: No Way Home (2021), which went on to become the sixth-highest-grossing movie of all time with almost $2 billion coming in to Disney (thank you, Tobey Maguire and Andrew Garfield).
Thor: Love and Thunder (2022) did pretty well box office-wise too, with $760 million, but then failed to get the love like the past films in the franchise. Guardians of the Galaxy were there too, who later went on to appear in the third film that would gross $845 million; both films had a budget of around $250 million.
Thunderbolts* might get close to these numbers, especially when Marvel is bringing their own version of a Superman, Sentry. The last time they brought in a mad titan was in 2018 and 2019; both films went straight into the $2 billion club.
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